11-Layer Heatmap (1-day)
L1
EDA Software
Triopoly
+1.88%
3 tickers
L2
IP Cores
Monopoly (mobile) + Duopoly (PC/server)
+8.46%
3 tickers
L3
Materials
Triopoly (Japan)
+6.71%
3 tickers
L4
Equipment
Monopoly (EUV) + Oligopoly (other)
+5.24%
5 tickers
L5
Foundry
Near-Monopoly at frontier
+1.87%
3 tickers
L6
Advanced Packaging (CoWoS)
TSMC dominant + OSAT alternates
+4.34%
2 tickers
L7
HBM Memory
Duopoly (Korea) + 1 challenger
+4.08%
4 tickers
L8
Talent
Geographic Concentration
qual.
0 tickers
L9
Power + Cooling
Multi-player
-0.07%
4 tickers
L10
Data Center Build-out
Multi-player
+1.90%
4 tickers
L11
Cloud / Hyperscaler
Triopoly + China
-0.05%
7 tickers
L12
Extended Watchlist
Outside EP15 11 layers
+2.05%
1 tickers
Single Points of Failure
ASML
EUV monopoly 100%
$1592.02
+4.97% 1d
+11.56% 5d
+36.80% YTD
Δ +2.86% vs 2026-05-08
P/E 52.49 · Fwd 33.25
TSM
Foundry frontier 92%
$411.68
-0.60% 1d
+3.52% 5d
+28.81% YTD
Δ -0.38% vs 2026-05-08
P/E 35.37 · Fwd 21.34
SNPS
EDA Triopoly
$516.48
+2.23% 1d
+5.62% 5d
+7.51% YTD
Δ +1.24% vs 2026-05-08
P/E 79.21 · Fwd 30.29
CDNS
EDA Triopoly
$362.7
+1.63% 1d
+6.38% 5d
+16.85% YTD
Δ +0.04% vs 2026-05-08
P/E 84.74 · Fwd 38.66
SHECY
Wafer/photoresist
$24.06
-0.50% 1d
+6.74% 5d
+53.44% YTD
Δ +0.29% vs 2026-05-08
P/E 30.07 · Fwd –
บทวิเคราะห์ (TH) — 10 ตัว
ASML — เครื่องลิโทกราฟี EUV ผูกขาด 100%
Layer 4 · Single Point of Failure ⭐ · Veldhoven, Netherlands
$1592.02
+4.97% 1d ·
+36.80% YTD
Bull ทุกชิป AI ต้องผ่านเครื่อง ASML — ไม่มีทางเลี่ยง. Backlog หลาย quarters, High-NA EUV รุ่นใหม่ราคา ~$380M ต่อเครื่อง. AI capex boom = order ทะลัก 2-3 ปีล่วงหน้า
Bear US ห้ามขาย EUV ให้จีนตั้งแต่ 2023 — ตลาดจีนหด ~30%. Cyclical industry — ถ้า capex foundry ลดลง รายได้กระทบทันที. Geopolitical: Netherlands อยู่กลาง US-China tension
TSMC — โรงหล่อชิปอันดับ 1 โลก
Layer 5 · Single Point of Failure ⭐ · Taiwan · 92% frontier (3nm/2nm)
$411.68
-0.60% 1d ·
+28.81% YTD
Bull ลูกค้าใหญ่: AAPL ~25%, NVDA, AMD, QCOM. CoWoS advanced packaging ผูกขาดเสริม Layer 6. CFO confirmed AI revenue โตเท่าตัวต่อปี 2024-2026
Bear Taiwan-China geopolitical = existential risk. Arizona fab รายงานขาดทุน 2025; Yield 3nm ดีแต่ค่าแรงสูง. Hsinchu earthquake ในเขตศูนย์กลางการผลิตเป็น tail risk
Synopsys — EDA software triopoly
Layer 1 · Single Point of Failure ⭐ · ส่วนแบ่ง EDA ~32% (รวมกับ CDNS = 65%)
$516.48
+2.23% 1d ·
+7.51% YTD
Bull AI ทำให้ design complexity ระเบิด — license value ขึ้นทุกปี. Acquisition Ansys (FY2025) ขยายไป simulation/multiphysics. ลูกค้าเป็น lock-in: ย้าย EDA platform ใช้เวลา 3-5 ปี
Bear P/E TTM 78x = premium มาก. จีน ban export EDA ให้ลูกค้า trade-blacklist. AI EDA startups (Cadence Cerebrus, Synopsys.ai) อาจ disrupt ตัวเอง
Cadence — EDA คู่กับ Synopsys
Layer 1 · Single Point of Failure ⭐ · Strength: digital + analog full-stack
$362.7
+1.63% 1d ·
+16.85% YTD
Bull Verification platform Palladium ขายเป็น hardware emulation (revenue stream แยก). Service business โต 25%+ ต่อปี. AI customer base ทุก fabless ใช้
Bear P/E สูงเหมือน SNPS. Concentration risk — top 10 customers = 40% revenue. หาก SNPS ออก feature ใหม่เด่น ลูกค้าย้ายได้ (น้อยมากแต่เกิดได้)
Shin-Etsu Chemical — Wafer + Photoresist
Layer 3 · Single Point of Failure ⭐ · Japan · ~30% silicon wafer global share
$24.06
-0.50% 1d ·
+53.44% YTD
Bull ไม่มีคู่แข่งใน 5 ปีข้างหน้า — capex ขยายโรงใหม่ใช้เวลา 3-4 ปี. Photoresist supplier ของทุก foundry ทั่วโลก. JPY weakness ทำให้ขายส่งออกมีกำไร
Bear Cyclical — capex foundry ลด → wafer demand ลด. ADR (SHECY) มี currency risk USD/JPY. Concentration risk: 60%+ revenue จาก top 10 lithography customers
Apple — TSMC's #1 customer
Layer 12 (Extended) · TSMC ~25% revenue · ใช้ ARM IP + ออกแบบเอง M-series, A-series
$293.32
+2.05% 1d ·
+8.23% YTD
Bull Vertical integration silicon → OS → app store ไม่มีใครเทียบได้. M-series chips นำ industry ใน power efficiency. Vision Pro + AI on-device พึ่ง bandwidth memory ที่คู่แข่งทำไม่ได้
Bear ยอดขาย iPhone จีน-อ่อน Q4 2025. Services growth ชะลอจาก double-digit เหลือ ~10%. ไม่มี AI killer feature เทียบ ChatGPT/Gemini. EU regulatory pressure App Store
Samsung Electronics — IDM ยักษ์เกาหลี
Layer 7 (HBM) + Layer 5 (Foundry challenger) · Seoul · ออกแบบ + ผลิตชิปเอง
$268500.0
-1.10% 1d ·
+108.95% YTD
Bull HBM duopoly กับ SK Hynix — supply NVIDIA. Foundry catch-up: 2nm GAA roadmap. DRAM cycle ขึ้น 2026; phone shipments ฟื้นตัวจาก low base
Bear ตามหลัง TSMC ใน frontier — yield 3nm GAA ต่ำกว่าคาด ลูกค้า NVIDIA หนีไป TSMC. HBM3E shipment ล่าช้าให้ NVDA. Phone share ถูก Xiaomi/Honor กิน
SK Hynix — HBM ผู้นำ
Layer 7 · Korea · supplier หลักของ NVIDIA H100/H200/B100/B200
$1686000.0
+1.93% 1d ·
+149.04% YTD
Bull YTD +144% สะท้อน HBM3E exclusive design-win กับ NVIDIA. CXL memory leadership. Capex ขยาย M15X fab รับ HBM4 พร้อม 2026 ครึ่งหลัง
Bear HBM cycle peak risk — Micron + Samsung กลับมาแข่ง HBM3E กลางปี. P/E TTM กระโดดสูงมาก. KRW weakness ส่งผลกระทบเป็นบวกแต่ลด FX-translated value สำหรับผู้ลงทุน USD
DELTA Electronics Thailand — Power + Cooling AI
Layer 9 · SET 🇹🇭 · Q1 2026 revenue $1.945B +56% YoY
$311.0
-1.27% 1d ·
+67.65% YTD
Bull ผู้ผลิต PSU + cooling สำหรับ AI server (NVIDIA reference design). Foxconn parent — supply chain advantage. Thai listing เดียวที่มี global player position ใน 11 layers
Bear Forward P/E 73 — price-in growth 5-7 ปีล่วงหน้า. SET retail-driven volatility สูง. Foreign ETF outflows risk หาก SET sentiment เปลี่ยน. AI capex slowdown = direct impact
ARM Holdings — IP Cores monopoly (mobile)
Layer 2 · Cambridge UK · royalty model on every smartphone chip
$213.27
-0.02% 1d ·
+85.89% YTD
Bull Architecture license + per-unit royalty = compounding revenue. Cloud Arm push (Graviton, Ampere) ขยายไป server. AI inference at edge ใช้ ARM neural engine
Bear P/E TTM 250+ = priced for perfection. Royalty rate ต่ำมาก (~1-2%) — AI accelerator revenue กระจุก. Customer concurrent: AAPL/Samsung/QCOM ออกแบบ chip เอง = ไม่ต้องการ license premium
บทวิเคราะห์เป็น framework-based starter analysis ตามกรอบ Chip War EP15 — แก้ไขใน config/analysis_th.json ได้
Top Movers (1-day)
▲ Top 5 Gainers
| SUMCF | L3 | $23.6 | +19.92% |
| MU | L7 | $746.81 | +15.49% |
| INTC | L2 | $124.92 | +13.96% |
| AMD | L2 | $455.19 | +11.44% |
| TOELY | L4 | $173.28 | +6.54% |
▼ Top 5 Losers
| MSFT | L11 | $415.12 | -1.34% |
| DELTA.BK | L9 | $311.0 | -1.27% |
| META | L11 | $609.63 | -1.16% |
| 005930.KS | L7 | $268500.0 | -1.10% |
| BABA | L11 | $140.06 | -0.67% |
Layer Details
L1 · EDA Software — Triopoly (3 tickers)
Synopsys + Cadence + Siemens EDA — เครื่องมือออกแบบชิป สหรัฐคุม 75%
| Ticker | Name | Price | 1d | 5d | YTD | 5d trend | P/E | Fwd P/E | GM% | MktCap | Upside | Rec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SNPS | Synopsys, Inc. | $516.48 | +2.23% | +5.62% | +7.51% | 79.21 | 30.29 | 82.0% | $98.94B | +3.52% | buy | |
| CDNS | Cadence Design Systems, Inc. | $362.7 | +1.63% | +6.38% | +16.85% | 84.74 | 38.66 | 86.1% | $100.04B | +4.62% | strong_buy | |
| SIEGY | Siemens Aktiengesellschaft | $156.75 | +1.79% | +5.39% | +11.25% | 26.66 | 21.45 | 38.8% | $241.12B | -3.78% | buy |
L2 · IP Cores — Monopoly (mobile) + Duopoly (PC/server) (3 tickers)
ARM ครองมือถือ; x86 = Intel/AMD
| Ticker | Name | Price | 1d | 5d | YTD | 5d trend | P/E | Fwd P/E | GM% | MktCap | Upside | Rec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARM | Arm Holdings plc | $213.27 | -0.02% | +0.99% | +85.89% | 250.91 | 71.02 | 97.5% | $226.92B | -9.68% | buy | |
| INTC | Intel Corporation | $124.92 | +13.96% | +25.40% | +217.22% | – | 81.61 | 37.2% | $627.85B | -35.21% | hold | |
| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. | $455.19 | +11.44% | +26.25% | +103.69% | 152.75 | 35.28 | 53.1% | $742.23B | -4.87% | strong_buy |
L3 · Materials — Triopoly (Japan) (3 tickers)
Shin-Etsu wafers + Tokyo Ohka photoresist + SUMCO (JSR taken private 2024)
| Ticker | Name | Price | 1d | 5d | YTD | 5d trend | P/E | Fwd P/E | GM% | MktCap | Upside | Rec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SHECY | Shin-Etsu Chemical Co., Ltd. | $24.06 | -0.50% | +6.74% | +53.44% | 30.07 | – | 34.2% | $89.34B | – | none | |
| SUMCF | Sumco Corporation | $23.6 | +19.92% | +44.25% | +148.42% | – | – | 13.3% | $8.25B | – | none | |
| TOK | iShares MSCI Kokusai ETF | $148.57 | +0.70% | +1.72% | +7.29% | 24.38 | – | – | – | – | None |
L4 · Equipment — Monopoly (EUV) + Oligopoly (other) (5 tickers)
ASML EUV 100% ⭐ Single Point of Failure | AMAT/LRCX/KLAC/TEL ส่วนอื่น
| Ticker | Name | Price | 1d | 5d | YTD | 5d trend | P/E | Fwd P/E | GM% | MktCap | Upside | Rec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASML | ASML Holding N.V. | $1592.02 | +4.97% | +11.56% | +36.80% | 52.49 | 33.25 | 52.6% | $613.59B | +5.49% | strong_buy | |
| AMAT | Applied Materials, Inc. | $435.44 | +6.04% | +11.92% | +61.95% | 44.75 | 30.95 | 48.7% | $345.57B | -2.54% | buy | |
| LRCX | Lam Research Corporation | $294.05 | +2.63% | +14.54% | +58.89% | 55.48 | 37.16 | 50.0% | $367.73B | +5.58% | buy | |
| KLAC | KLA Corporation | $1869.19 | +6.01% | +8.28% | +46.66% | 53.00 | 37.68 | 61.4% | $244.17B | -1.79% | buy | |
| TOELY | Tokyo Electron Limited | $173.28 | +6.54% | +13.02% | +51.67% | 43.65 | – | 45.3% | $157.63B | – | none |
L5 · Foundry — Near-Monopoly at frontier (3 tickers)
TSMC 92% AI chip frontier ⭐ | GFS/UMC trailing edge
| Ticker | Name | Price | 1d | 5d | YTD | 5d trend | P/E | Fwd P/E | GM% | MktCap | Upside | Rec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturi | $411.68 | -0.60% | +3.52% | +28.81% | 35.37 | 21.34 | 61.9% | $2.14T | +12.58% | strong_buy | |
| GFS | GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc. | $74.12 | +4.50% | +14.19% | +101.03% | 53.32 | 29.94 | 26.1% | $40.65B | +1.19% | buy | |
| UMC | United Microelectronics Corporat | $15.42 | +1.72% | +18.16% | +96.68% | 24.87 | 19.22 | 29.6% | $38.78B | -32.82% | underperform |
L6 · Advanced Packaging (CoWoS) — TSMC dominant + OSAT alternates (2 tickers)
TSMC ผูกขาด CoWoS (อยู่ใน L5 แล้ว); ASE/Amkor เป็น OSAT alternative
| Ticker | Name | Price | 1d | 5d | YTD | 5d trend | P/E | Fwd P/E | GM% | MktCap | Upside | Rec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASX | ASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd. | $34.23 | +2.67% | +8.36% | +103.02% | 52.66 | 21.58 | 18.5% | $75.10B | +12.91% | strong_buy | |
| AMKR | Amkor Technology, Inc. | $76.61 | +6.01% | +7.76% | +78.49% | 44.03 | 31.27 | 14.4% | $18.99B | -1.45% | buy |
L7 · HBM Memory — Duopoly (Korea) + 1 challenger (4 tickers)
SK Hynix + Samsung ครอง HBM | Micron ไล่ตาม
| Ticker | Name | Price | 1d | 5d | YTD | 5d trend | P/E | Fwd P/E | GM% | MktCap | Upside | Rec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MU | Micron Technology, Inc. | $746.81 | +15.49% | +37.73% | +136.77% | 35.21 | 7.34 | 58.4% | $842.20B | -25.54% | strong_buy | |
| SSNLF | Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. | $65.21 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 19.52 | 14.69 | 47.7% | $428.21B | – | none | |
| 000660.KS | SK hynix Inc. | $1686000.0 | +1.93% | +30.39% | +149.04% | – | 4.56 | 59.6% | $1194.86T | +6.19% | strong_buy | |
| 005930.KS | Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. | $268500.0 | -1.10% | +18.81% | +108.95% | – | 5.33 | 47.7% | $1763.12T | +15.22% | strong_buy |
L9 · Power + Cooling — Multi-player (4 tickers)
Vertiv/Eaton/Schneider + 🇹🇭 DELTA Thailand เด่น (Q1 2026 +56% YoY)
| Ticker | Name | Price | 1d | 5d | YTD | 5d trend | P/E | Fwd P/E | GM% | MktCap | Upside | Rec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VRT | Vertiv Holdings Co | $339.97 | -0.01% | +3.55% | +93.59% | 85.42 | 39.46 | 37.2% | $130.59B | -3.69% | buy | |
| ETN | Eaton Corporation plc | $401.51 | +0.59% | -5.65% | +22.67% | 39.29 | 25.85 | 37.1% | $155.91B | +9.08% | buy | |
| SU | Suncor Energy Inc. | $64.01 | +0.42% | -5.24% | +40.40% | 16.54 | 12.28 | 58.8% | $75.58B | -3.67% | buy | |
| DELTA.BK | Delta Electronics (Thailand) Pub | $311.0 | -1.27% | -1.58% | +67.65% | 137.00 | 79.81 | 28.7% | $3.88T | -3.61% | buy |
L10 · Data Center Build-out — Multi-player (4 tickers)
REIT (EQIX/DLR) + server OEM (SMCI) + colo
| Ticker | Name | Price | 1d | 5d | YTD | 5d trend | P/E | Fwd P/E | GM% | MktCap | Upside | Rec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EQIX | Equinix, Inc. | $1072.08 | +0.50% | -1.19% | +40.30% | 73.89 | 56.95 | 51.6% | $105.73B | +11.07% | buy | |
| DLR | Digital Realty Trust, Inc. | $195.31 | +0.27% | -2.69% | +25.98% | 51.67 | 62.78 | 55.3% | $69.86B | +11.55% | buy | |
| SMCI | Super Micro Computer, Inc. | $35.37 | +5.21% | +30.56% | +14.24% | 18.62 | 10.95 | 8.4% | $21.24B | +3.90% | hold | |
| IRM | Iron Mountain Incorporated | $128.84 | +1.60% | +1.30% | +54.78% | 138.54 | 48.19 | 55.0% | $38.33B | -0.23% | buy |
L11 · Cloud / Hyperscaler — Triopoly + China (7 tickers)
MSFT/GOOGL/AMZN ครองตะวันตก | BABA/BIDU จีน | ORCL/META challenger
| Ticker | Name | Price | 1d | 5d | YTD | 5d trend | P/E | Fwd P/E | GM% | MktCap | Upside | Rec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | Microsoft Corporation | $415.12 | -1.34% | +0.16% | -12.23% | 24.72 | 21.45 | 68.3% | $3.08T | +35.40% | strong_buy | |
| GOOGL | Alphabet Inc. | $400.8 | +0.71% | +3.92% | +27.18% | 30.62 | 27.71 | 60.4% | $4.86T | +6.54% | strong_buy | |
| AMZN | Amazon.com, Inc. | $272.68 | +0.56% | +1.65% | +20.39% | 32.66 | 27.63 | 50.6% | $2.93T | +13.98% | strong_buy | |
| ORCL | Oracle Corporation | $195.95 | +0.70% | +14.04% | +0.12% | 35.18 | 24.39 | 67.1% | $563.56B | +23.55% | buy | |
| META | Meta Platforms, Inc. | $609.63 | -1.16% | +0.14% | -6.27% | 22.16 | 16.85 | 81.9% | $1.55T | +35.61% | strong_buy | |
| BABA | Alibaba Group Holding Limited | $140.06 | -0.67% | +6.51% | -10.07% | 24.70 | 19.03 | 40.8% | $336.01B | +35.35% | strong_buy | |
| BIDU | Baidu, Inc. | $141.05 | +0.84% | +12.05% | -6.15% | 82.01 | 15.28 | 43.9% | $47.99B | +24.57% | strong_buy |
L12 · Extended Watchlist — Outside EP15 11 layers (1 tickers)
ตัวที่ขอ track เพิ่ม — เป็น customer/ผู้ใช้งานปลายน้ำของ chip stack ทั้ง 11 ชั้น
| Ticker | Name | Price | 1d | 5d | YTD | 5d trend | P/E | Fwd P/E | GM% | MktCap | Upside | Rec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | Apple Inc. | $293.32 | +2.05% | +4.70% | +8.23% | 35.55 | 30.68 | 47.9% | $4.31T | +3.43% | buy |
Issues
No issues.